Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- c0e0f06a-c881-4667-80f1-3694b58a6031
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 08:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 08:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T08:14:03.223610+00:00 · external market id: 3069676 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 418b5cff-1956-4560-b162-ed4f5af38610
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
3882ace8-f5bd-44d7-b7b9-86a634fe1f43Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.