Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- d3d46e3e-25ad-4cf5-b85a-0efd115d0e31
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T00:16:30.641336+00:00 · external market id: 2159718 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00 · source market id: a62e613a-6e4f-435d-8db3-07e0cdbca250
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
073f2dbe-d21d-446e-a284-97242c4b2176Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.