Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? decreased by 10.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? decreased by 10.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 8545e9f9-4413-4566-9666-140263660a80
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2026, 09:41 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 23, 2026, 09:41 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? decreased by 10.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-20T09:41:58.441719+00:00 · external market id: 3670534 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-22T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: e7cb6510-2376-4cdc-a78c-982c7eff8ade
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
8646126e-e549-4e91-baf5-9cb651efa8c2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? decreased by 10.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.