Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 7c7c6e89-6ea3-4b56-b15e-c46db9697b13
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 17, 2026, 05:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-14T05:15:46.194112+00:00 · external market id: 704424 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 279eea7b-a04c-4cf2-9b79-4a229154e9f6
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
f76d3b7e-c334-4203-832e-aa7e6a0f493eLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.