Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 6edb02f3-3364-4944-a617-1dbedddeb0bf
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T09:15:29.310926+00:00 · external market id: 3006436 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 51c6aef8-8b0c-4f0d-9b6f-525a5a1f0183
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
c1783b70-633f-49b7-b468-4cfb6b263131Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.