Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- b4537baf-d628-48c0-9be6-13275f008ec9
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T21:16:20.211224+00:00 · external market id: 2299956 · resolution deadline at: 2027-01-01T12:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 946e5c32-6884-4344-8a10-026b663937ca
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
3e485730-e0ef-4fb9-b142-538166171873Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.