Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 2bb92aea-003c-4edc-bc68-e9ebeaec1715
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T21:16:20.211224+00:00 · external market id: 2244513 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 830fba52-ba19-431d-81f7-9941b0531805
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
60d6ba02-bcd5-435e-b0d1-0320de4b516dLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.