Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 5716f59d-dd74-47b7-8d0c-590b857303f5
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T01:17:51.634665+00:00 · external market id: 3670499 · resolution deadline at: 2027-03-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 2ab45e97-531f-47ac-8c58-eec301d423b0
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
d649f3ce-37d6-402a-adad-a2fcb5ae9feeLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.