Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? decreased by 11.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? decreased by 11.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 735ba833-78f1-4137-abd9-5c24a861993e
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? decreased by 11.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00 · external market id: 3670499 · resolution deadline at: 2027-03-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 2ab45e97-531f-47ac-8c58-eec301d423b0
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
428bdf86-2bc6-4833-9934-184ec50a5833Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? decreased by 11.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.