Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 9.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 9.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- fb1f7b33-d0d0-425f-8cc1-5f777307c5b8
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 05:17 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 05:17 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 9.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T17:17:01.763376+00:00 · external market id: 2663611 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-20T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
6db3528c-6e3a-4400-a9b1-789720909613Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 9.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.