Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 82bb0c5f-93a1-4d37-ba45-6773d7a3649b
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 08:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 08:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T08:14:22.490097+00:00 · external market id: 2663611 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-20T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
5de45c25-0cb9-4033-bf58-6645aed083e3Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.