Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 1bbc2cb6-5575-44f0-b2bf-d28220cc86e0
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T00:16:30.641336+00:00 · external market id: 2952493 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
7ac775fb-0242-4ac6-9c75-9ddc612b55c7Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.