Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for China x Japan military clash before 2027? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for China x Japan military clash before 2027? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- f2e45dba-889f-4e02-8ec6-eccb817da6a4
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 04:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 04:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for China x Japan military clash before 2027? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T04:14:51.789019+00:00 · external market id: 687642 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 3cef5fdb-c3d5-4575-a9f6-24655e674db1
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
f6f1de0b-0478-4d87-b6f9-dd7e7fcb60c8Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for China x Japan military clash before 2027? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.