Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- c6ec13b3-fa30-42b2-9ef8-8f7195d1c4fe
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T07:15:35.519324+00:00 · external market id: 648383 · resolution deadline at: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 7440f1ca-3e21-4b62-b596-5999a991ea42
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
37024bb7-52c2-42bd-b70a-f415cce05d71Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.