Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 18ee9482-338b-4c0f-acb1-81613d769fd1
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T09:16:05.286460+00:00 · external market id: 3120760 · resolution deadline at: 2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 96531f0e-21ce-4981-833e-cbdac114436e
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
2daa0736-0fa8-47ec-b98a-e0ab5914d364Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.