Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for China x Philippines military clash before 2027? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for China x Philippines military clash before 2027? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 3cb10560-e5df-4e29-b838-3be1411cfd19
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for China x Philippines military clash before 2027? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T04:15:24.355360+00:00 · external market id: 3091051 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 0b83c5af-12b6-45a1-83e8-b056b8eda93b
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
d9cbeb2c-1abc-4be2-a916-99763c1560f4Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for China x Philippines military clash before 2027? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.