Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 243
Selected events: 150
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 5 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsverified signal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Related source markets · $20.7K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
30%↘ -4pp
ranked representativeOctober 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
13.5%—

iranverified signal

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Related source markets · $91.1K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

26.5%

↗ +3.5pp

ranked representativeNovember 30

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?

17.5%—

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Related source markets · $345.7K traded in 24h

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
18.5%↗ +2pp

middle eastverified signal

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $71.5K traded in 24h

leaderMojtaba Khamenei
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
81.1%↗ +0.6pp
ranked representativeNo Head of State
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
4.9%↘ -0.2pp

hfcactive event

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Related source markets · $27.7K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityXi Jinping out before 2027?
4.6%↗ +0.2pp

reza pahlaviactive event

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Related source markets · $20.2K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Related source markets · $125.2K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
21.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveSeptember 30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
53.5%↘ -2pp

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Related source markets · $1.0M traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5.3%↗ +1.5pp
ranked representativeAugust 15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
0.3%↘ -0.1pp

politicsverified signal

Israel closes its airspace by...?

Related source markets · $23.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
2.9%↘ 0pp

iranverified signal

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Related source markets · $12.8K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
64%↘ -2pp
highest source probabilitySeptember 30
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
76.5%—

politicsobserved move

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $5.6K traded in 24h

leaderNo meeting by December 31
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
64.5%↘ -2pp

oilobserved move

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Related source markets · $3.1K traded in 24h

largest material moveAugust 19
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 19, 2026?
10%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activityAugust 11
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
88.9%—