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即時版面探索典藏方法

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依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 260
入選事件: 151
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午03:18 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 13 個較低價值命題

politicsverified signal

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$13.1萬

leaderUnited Russia (ER)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
66.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveNew People (NL)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
26.3%↗ +1.4pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月30日上午12:00 [UTC]+6 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.6萬

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

35.5%

↗ +11pp

largest material move140-159

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

21.5%↗ +13pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月14日下午04:00 [UTC]+20 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

united statesactive event

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.6萬

leaderJ.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
44.2%↗ +0.2pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
23.4%→ 0pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2028年11月7日上午12:00 [UTC]+40 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

presidentactive event

Presidential Election Winner 2028

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$8.4萬

leaderJD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21.7%→ 0pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12.4%↘ -0.1pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2028年11月7日上午12:00 [UTC]+48 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

aliensactive event

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.2萬

highest 24h activityDecember 31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4.5%→ 0pp
ranked representativeSeptember 30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
2.1%↘ -0.1pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月30日上午12:00 [UTC]完整事件檢視

Polymarket Gamma ↗

resignactive event

Trump out as President by August 31?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$22.7萬

highest 24h activityTrump out as President by August 31?
0.5%↘ 0pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月31日下午11:59 [UTC]完整事件檢視

Polymarket Gamma ↗

politicsverified signal

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9572.3

leader180-199
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
99.2%—

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月11日下午04:00 [UTC]+2 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

pop cultureobserved move

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5701.8

leader180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
20.5%↗ +1pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月18日下午04:00 [UTC]+25 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

united statesactive event

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.8萬

leaderDemocrats Sweep
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
46.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerR Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
40.5%→ 0pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年11月3日上午12:00 [UTC]+3 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

politicsmaterial repricing

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.6萬

leaderAlexandru Nazare
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
52.9%↗ +10.3pp

觀測於 6 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日上午12:00 [UTC]+35 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

politicsobserved move

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9610.1

leaderUnited Russia (ER)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
98.1%↘ -0.5pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月30日上午12:00 [UTC]+7 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$7724.5

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5%→ 0pp

觀測於 5 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日上午12:00 [UTC]+7 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

← 較新事件第 5 頁，共 13 頁更多事件 →

每個主體的目前紀錄

近期訊號

顯示 24 筆 · 較早快照仍保留在公開帳本

編輯台訊號事件／主體有效至更新

預期變化The YES probability for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran leader end of 2026?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? increased by 1.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedCrude Oil all time high by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? decreased by 1.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? increased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? increased by 10.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 20.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午02:15 [UTC]6 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]7 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]7 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]7 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]7 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran invades Kuwait by...?2026年8月14日下午12:14 [UTC]8 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2026年8月14日下午12:14 [UTC]8 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedECB Interest Rates: September 20262026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedLargest Company end of December 2026?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 0.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 20282026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will win the House in 2026?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]9 小時前

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