依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 265
入選事件: 152
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午03:18 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 13 個較低價值命題

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$8077.6

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5%→ 0pp

ecbverified signal

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6732.2

leader25 bps increase
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
86.5%—

cpi

material repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.8萬

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
79%↗ +16.5pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
15.5%↘ -11pp

cpi releasematerial repricing

Fed rate hike in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.5萬

largest material moveFed rate hike in 2026?
59.5%↗ +5pp

fedmaterial repricing

Fed rate hike by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

largest material moveSeptember Meeting
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
41.5%↗ +5pp
highest source probabilityOctober Meeting
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
49.5%—

bojobserved move

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6105.2

leader25 bps increase
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
59.5%↗ +2.5pp

techobserved move

Largest Company end of August?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5.2萬

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
91.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeApple
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5.1%↗ +0.6pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50observed move

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.4萬

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.3%↘ -0.5pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.7萬

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
33%↘ -6pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$24.0萬

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
92.5%↗ +68pp
ranked representative180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
6.5%↘ -54pp

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.2萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
36.7%↘ -17pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp