依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 256
入選事件: 148
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 11 個較低價值命題

politicsverified signal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.8萬

latest verified signalDecember 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
29.5%↘ -5pp
ranked representativeOctober 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
13.5%—

iranverified signal

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.1萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
70.5%↗ +5pp
highest source probability

September 30

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

77%

—

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$23.0萬

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
19%↗ +2.5pp

middle eastverified signal

Iran leader end of 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6.5萬

leaderMojtaba Khamenei
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
81.2%↗ +0.7pp
ranked representativeNo Head of State
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
4.9%↘ -0.2pp

hfcactive event

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.1萬

highest 24h activityXi Jinping out before 2027?
4.7%↗ +0.2pp

trumpactive event

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.5萬

highest 24h activityDecember 31
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
7.6%↗ +0.2pp

reza pahlaviactive event

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

highest 24h activityWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$5.4萬

latest verified signalDecember 31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
25.5%↗ +3pp
ranked representativeNovember 30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
17.5%—

oilverified signal

Crude Oil all time high by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.3萬

latest verified signalSeptember 30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
5%↗ +1.8pp
largest material moveDecember 31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
12.5%↗ +2pp

politicsverified signal

Iran leadership change by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.4萬

latest verified signalDecember 31
Iran leadership change by December 31?
18.5%↘ -1pp
highest source probabilityJune 30, 2027
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
32.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$7.7萬

latest verified signalOctober 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
74%↗ +2pp
largest material moveDecember 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
80.4%↘ -2.4pp

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$109.6萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5.4%↗ +1.6pp
ranked representativeAugust 15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
0.4%→ 0pp