依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 233
入選事件: 143
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 11 組 · 已收起 9 個較低價值命題

sportsobserved move

Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CD Universidad Católica

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.3萬

leaderCD Universidad Católica
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-08-11?
15.5%↗ +1pp

sportsobserved move

Manchester United vs. Leeds United

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.3萬

leaderManchester United
Will Manchester United win on 2026-08-12?
45.5%↘ -1pp

sportsobserved move

Avaí FC vs. CR Brasil

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.3萬

leaderCR Brasil
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-08-11?
34.5%↘ -1pp

sportsnear resolution

Minnesota United FC vs. Atlante FC

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$17.8萬

leaderMinnesota United FC
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-11?
48.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerAtlante FC
Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-11?
27%→ 0pp

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5933.5

leader35°C
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?
54.5%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5048.1

leader27°C
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 12?
36.5%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Munich on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4796.0

leader30°C
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?
45%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4129.4

leader28°C
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 12?
43.5%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3467.3

leader36°C
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?
44%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Singapore on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2661.3

leader32°C
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 12?
60.5%—

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 12?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2154.2

leader36°C
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 12?
35%—

每個主體的目前紀錄

近期訊號

顯示 24 筆 · 較早快照仍保留在公開帳本

編輯台訊號事件／主體有效至更新

預期變化The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran leader end of 2026?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? increased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedCrude Oil all time high by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? increased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? increased by 12.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]15 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2026年8月14日下午12:14 [UTC]16 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedLargest Company end of December 2026?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 0.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 20282026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedClacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will win the House in 2026?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? increased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext French Presidential Election2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWill Russia capture Lyman by...?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]17 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]18 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]18 小時前