依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 239
入選事件: 145
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 6 個較低價值命題

iranverified signal

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$5.8萬

latest verified signalUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
34.5%↗ +1pp

iranverified signal

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.9萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.2%↘ -0.3pp

politicsverified signal

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$11.7萬

leaderDarline Graham Nordone
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
61.5%↗ +2pp
latest verified signalRalph Norman
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
29.5%↘ -3pp

cryptoverified signal

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$51.7萬

latest verified signalClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5.5萬

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
33.5%↗ +9pp
largest material move140-159
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
21.5%↗ +12pp

fomcmaterial repricing

Fed Decision in September?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$78.4萬

leaderNo change
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
58.5%↘ -3pp
credible challenger25 bps increase
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
39.5%↗ +3pp

senate electionsobserved move

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.4萬

leaderRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
54.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
46.5%↗ +1pp

california midtermobserved move

California Governor Election Winner

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.8萬

leaderXavier Becerra
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
93.1%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activitySteve Hilton
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7%↗ +0.9pp

uknear resolution

Clacton by-election Winner

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$26.3萬

leaderNigel Farage
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
99.2%↗ +0.1pp
highest 24h activityCount Binface
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
0.9%↘ -0.1pp

united statesactive event

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.5萬

leaderJ.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
44.2%↗ +0.2pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
23.4%→ 0pp

resignactive event

Trump out as President by August 31?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$22.1萬

highest 24h activityTrump out as President by August 31?
0.5%↘ -0.1pp

presidentactive event

Presidential Election Winner 2028

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6.8萬

leaderJD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21.7%→ 0pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12.5%→ 0pp