依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 239
入選事件: 145
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 6 個較低價值命題

politicsverified signal

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9.1萬

leaderUnited Russia (ER)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
66.5%↘ -1pp
largest material moveNew People (NL)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
26.3%↗ +2.3pp

pop cultureobserved move

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.4萬

leader180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

20.5%

↗ +1pp

credible challenger160-179

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

19.5%—

united statesactive event

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.2萬

leaderDemocrats Sweep
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
46.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerR Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
40.5%→ 0pp

politicsmaterial repricing

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

largest material moveChristopher Luxon out by September 30?
57%↗ +38.5pp

politicsmaterial repricing

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.5萬

leaderAlexandru Nazare
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
52.9%↗ +10.3pp

politicsactive event

Brazil Presidential Election

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.9萬

leaderLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerFlávio Bolsonaro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27.1%↘ -0.1pp

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$7656.1

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.7萬

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
76.5%↗ +14pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
33%↗ +1pp

techobserved move

Largest Company end of August?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.6萬

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
91.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeApple
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5.2%↗ +0.7pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50active event

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.0萬

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.5%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.7萬

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
32.5%↘ -6.5pp

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.5萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
37.7%↘ -16pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp