依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 267
入選事件: 156
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 10 個較低價值命題

iranverified signal

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$16.2萬

latest verified signalAugust 14
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
94.5%↗ +2pp
highest source probabilityAugust 31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
95.5%↗ +1pp

politicsobserved move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$3744.0

largest material moveDecember 31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
18%↘ -0.5pp

+2 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

oilnear resolution

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2639.4

highest 24h activityAugust 11
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
88.9%—

iranverified signal

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$11.7萬

latest verified signalSeptember 30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
53.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
23.5%↗ +1pp

oilactive event

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.5萬

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
4.6%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
1.9%—

politicsactive event

Trump out as President before 2027?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

highest 24h activityTrump out as President before 2027?
6.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.6萬

leaderNo Meeting by September 30
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
46.4%↗ +1.6pp
credible challengerSwitzerland
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
19%↗ +0.5pp

politicsactive event

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$5837.8

highest 24h activityEgypt
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
9.5%—
highest source probabilitySomaliland
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%—

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$9.8萬

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.3pp

pop cultureverified signal

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.0萬

leader<40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
50.5%↗ +25pp
latest verified signal40-64
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
43.5%↘ -8.5pp

russiaverified signal

Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$15.5萬

latest verified signalYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
97.1%↗ +22.1pp

french electionverified signal

Next French Presidential Election

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.2萬

leaderMarine Le Pen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
32.9%↗ +2.6pp
credible challengerÉdouard Philippe
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
25.5%→ 0pp